Thursday, April 10, 2014

2014 NFL Draft: Underrated Talent

The 2013 NFL Draft was considered a draft with few great players but countless good players.  The 2014 NFL Draft will be different.  Some of these underrated prospects have the potential to break records right out of the gate, while others will take time before becoming stars of the gridiron.

For ex-scouts Bucky Brooks and Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com, Teddy Bridgewater is the top QB in the 2014 NFL Draft.
Teddy Bridgewater
Height:  6'2" Weight:  214 lbs.
Position:  Quarterback
College:  Louisville
This is one of the toughest quarterback classes to figure out in recent memory.  That said, Teddy Bridgewater is my top pick at the position.  He doesn't possess the pizzazz of Johnny Manziel or the velocity of Blake Bortles, but his accuracy, poise, mechanics, and drive are what will make him the finest signal-caller of his class.  Bridgewater had a breakout season in 2012 when he ranked 6th in FBS in completion percentage with 68.5%, 7th in passer rating with 160.5 and led the Cardinals to an upset win against Florida in the Allstate Sugar Bowl.  His 2013 campaign was even better, in which he led Louisville to a one-loss season and improved his statistics in virtually every major passing category.
Perhaps Bridgewater's best attribute is his fundamentals.  He is a very technically sound quarterback, with impressive intangibles, mental toughness, and a high football IQ.  Through all these factors, he has a perfect pro comparison in Aaron Rodgers.  Likely to be drafted early in the 1st round, Teddy Bridgewater will be the turning point for any team in need of a sterling, franchise quarterback.
NFL Comparison: Aaron Rodgers

Storm Johnson runs away from Baylor linebacker
Eddie Lackey for one of his three TDs in the
2013 Tostitos Fiesta Bowl.

Storm Johnson
Height:  6'0" Weight:  209 lbs.
Position:  Running Back
College: UCF
Central Florida's top prospect in the 2014 draft is quarterback Blake Bortles.  Their number two prospect is Storm Johnson.  A transfer from the U in 2011, Storm racked up an AAC-high of 1,139 rushing yards in 2013 and 14 rushing touchdowns- tied for third in UCF history.  He, like Bridgewater, has a very accurate NFL comparison in Frank Gore.  Both are downhill runners with not the highest top speed, but they utilize their exceptional vision and tough-to-bring-down running style to advance their way through defenses.  What Storm lacks in power compared to Gore, he surpasses him in shiftiness and agility.  A 2013 First-team All-AAC member, Storm Johnson should be one of the few running backs drafted on day 2 in May.
NFL Comparison: Frank Gore


Odell Beckham Jr.
Height:  5'11" Weight:  198 lbs.
Position:  Wide Receiver
Odell Beckham Jr. made countless displays of athleticism at
LSU, including this acrobatic catch against UAB and
this jaw-dropping touchback against Georgia.
College:  LSU
Wide Receivers are often considered the biggest draft risks each year.  Despite this, my first 2014 mock draft had eight wide receivers drafted in the first round.  In one of the best receiver groups I've ever seen, Odell Beckham Jr., along with Clemson phenom Sammy Watkins, Oregon State's Brandin Cooks, USC's Marqise Lee, and Texas A&M's Mike Evans, will be the toast of the class.  Beckham had a stellar 19.5 yards per catch in 2013; second most of FBS players with 50+ catches and .7 behind Evans. He also averaged a respectable 26.4 yards per kick return.  At LSU, he and Jarvis Landry were the top wideout duo in all of college football.  He has slot receiver speed and sets the standard for creating separation and going up and grabbing a pass.  Odell Beckham Jr. will give any offense(and special teams unit) an extremely potent new weapon.
NFL Comparison: Victor Cruz

Kony Ealy
Height:  6'4" Weight:  273 lbs.
Position:  Defensive End
College:  Missouri
Missouri's defensive end Michael Sam made waves this offseason when he made public that he will be the NFL's first openly gay player.  The Tigers' other defensive end, Kony Ealy, is also a highly touted prospect with a promising future.  A First-team All-SEC selection, Ealy terrorized offensive lines along with Sam, together generating a combined 20.5 sacks in 2013.  He can perform a wide variety of moves to get to the quarterback, a rarity in seasoned pass-rushers that's starting to become a coveted trait in younger athletes.  On top of his impressive physical stature and skills, he is an extremely team-oriented player.  Always putting his teammates first, Kony Ealy's numerous positives are what make him a bright, dependable draft prospect.
NFL Comparison: Trent Cole

Kony Ealy forces a sack-fumble on Auburn QB Nick Marshall in the 2013 SEC Championship game.


Jimmie Ward's(#15) ability to attack downhill is perhaps his
strongest suit.
Jimmie Ward
Height:  5'11" Weight:  193 lbs.
Position:  Strong Safety
College:  Northern Illinois
Northern Illinois' best draft prospect is not quarterback Jordan Lynch, it's Jimmie Ward.  He is a prototypical safety; severely aggressive towards the ball, attacks downhill, and seems to be everywhere at once when on the field.  He excels at making plays right at the point of contact, and has the additional plus of being a dynamic special teams player.  While he may take a season or so to mature into a pro, Third-team All-American Jimmie Ward is definitely a product worth being patient with.
NFL Comparison: Ed Reed




These next five prospects are even more undervalued:


Silas Redd
Silas Redd shows quick patience against Syracuse.
Height:  5'10" Weight:  212 lbs.
Position:  Running Back
College:  USC
Silas Redd is an example of a running back who, due to multiple factors such as injuries and a crowded position group, received limited playcalls throughout his college career.  In the NFL nowadays, most teams create playbooks around halfback committees anyways.  Redd has many underrated running back characteristics, from effective pass protection to a constant leg drive.  Teams looking to add consistency to their backfield would benefit from snatching Silas Redd in later rounds.
NFL Comparison: Fred Jackson

Jeff Janis
Height:  6'3" Weight:  219 lbs.
Position:  Wide Receiver
College:  Saginaw Valley State
If Beckham Jr. and Watkins are the top prospects of this receiver class, then Jeff Janis could be the biggest steal.  After surprising many with a blazing 4.42 40 at the NFL Combine, Janis' draft stock soared, and deservedly so.  He has the strong receiving game to back up his speed, showing physicality deep down-field, and carrying a passion for the game with him throughout.  Despite playing in division II his college career, Jeff Janis will jump at the chance an NFL team should surely grant him, and they won't regret it.
NFL Comparison: Eric Decker

Will Sutton
Despite his height, Will Sutton weighs in at a heavy 303 lbs.
Height:  6'0" Weight:  303 lbs.
Position:  Defensive Tackle
College:  Arizona State
Will Sutton is a stout defensive tackle.  He is shorter than most defensive lineman in the NFL, and sometimes plays like it.  There are also times when he will make plays most defensive lineman in the NFL can't.  He has a rare body-type some franchise GMs will shudder at.  But surprise may be his best tool.  With a widely impressive resume and football genes(his father played in the NFL for five seasons), Will Sutton is another diamond in the rough draft prospect.
NFL Comparison: B.J. Raji

Jeremiah George
Height:  5'11" Weight:  234 lbs.
Position:  Middle Linebacker
College:  Iowa State
As a sports statistician, I worked the 2013 Cy-Hawk Trophy game in which, although Iowa State lost, Jeremiah George produced a team-high 13 tackles.  He has an excellent mental game and is a forceful leader on defense.  George currently lacks the size to truly be the top tackler in an NFL defense, but if he can gain some muscle, he would have considerable potential.
NFL Comparison: Colin McCarthy

Stanley Jean-Baptiste
Height:  6'3" Weight:  218 lbs.
Position:  Cornerback
College:  Nebraska
When I first saw Stanley Jean-Baptiste make a play, I thought he was an undersized, athletic outside linebacker.  As a former wide receiver, Jean-Baptiste has the explosive instincts to not only gravitate towards the ball, but to catch it, shown in his team-leading 4 interceptions and 12 pass deflections in 2013.  He led all cornerbacks in the vertical jump at the NFL Combine with a 41.5" leap, and tied for 3rd at the position with a 10'8" broad jump.  Stanley Jean-Baptiste may be the most underrated prospect in the entire draft, and has all the prized features to flourish at the professional level.
NFL Comparison: Charles Woodson

Stanley Jean-Baptiste, who played in JUCO out of high school, had two pick-sixes in his college career, this one against
Southern Mississippi in 2013.


With less than four weeks to go before the 2014 NFL Draft, these prospects' dreams are that close to becoming reality.

Monday, February 3, 2014

2013 NFL Season

Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson commemorated his Super Bowl performance to his father, who passed away four years ago, but for Wilson, was "watching from the 50 yard line".


So ends the 2013 NFL season.

Right off the bat, we saw what kind of season this was going to be; a season dominated by the passing attack.  In week 1, only three players racked up over 100 rushing yards, and one wasn't even a running back(Terrelle Pryor).  Throughout the year, quarterbacks threw for 7 touchdowns in a game, a perfect passer rating, and 5,000 yards.  We saw a veteran signal-caller play so ridiculously well that it's embarrassing how many experts(including myself) didn't pick him to be MVP from the start.
Perhaps one of the most interesting stats of the NFL, that this season supported, has to do with scoring teams winning the Super Bowl.  The fact is, none of the top eight highest scoring teams have.  And while all those passing stats are significant, they didn't matter when it came to the playoffs.  The four quarterbacks who led their teams to their respective conference championship games were ranked 1, 6, 16, and 20 in season passing yards, and 4,9,12, and 19 in season passer rating.  When it comes to the championship, you need more than just a potent offense.  A tenacious defense is needed to not only stop, but demoralize the opposing team.  This is exactly what the world champion Seattle Seahawks did last night, and now they hoist the Lombardi Trophy for the first time in franchise history.

During the offseason, teams make moves and transactions in hopes of achieving that glory. 
As the NFL Combine, NFL Draft, and the rest of the offseason fly by, a new champion will eventually be crowned, and will make their mark in NFL history.

Sunday, January 19, 2014

NFL Playoffs: Conference Championships

Conference Championship picks:

Wes Welker will be facing his former team, and while he never had as low receiving yardage on New England as he's had
on Denver, he has more touchdowns this season than he ever had in a season with Brady throwing him the ball.

(1)Denver Broncos vs. (2)New England Patriots
With the exceptions of the Texans and Falcons, just about every team that was expected to go far this season, did.  In fact, the Broncos, Seahawks, Patriots, and 49ers were probably the top four most popular picks to win the Super Bowl at the beginning of the season.  When these four teams go at it today, we won't get anything less than expected.  The Broncos and Patriots square off first, after a wild week 12 shootout between Peyton Manning and Tom Brady that ended with the wind(literally) favoring New England.  Peyton however is 6-0 in rematches within a season since 2008, and Brady has been putting up mostly pedestrian numbers his entire 2013 campaign.  Last week, both teams shifted their play-calling to the run game, something they had done at other points in the season, and succeeded.  This time around, both squads will need their entire offenses.  That bodes well for Denver, who has the better offensive attack, and while defense is usually just as important, this playoff game won't feature much of it.  In Manning-Brady XV, not even the great Brady-Belichick duo will be ably to stop The Sheriff.

Prediction: Broncos 34  Patriots 30


Michael Crabtree has a solid 31 receptions for 435 yards and 1 touchdown in 7 games this season(including postseason)

(1)Seattle Seahawks vs. (5)San Francisco 49ers
The last time any team made it to the Super Bowl in consecutive seasons, Tom Brady was winning his third NFL championship.  The San Francisco 49ers plan to be next.  At the C-Link tonight, the 49ers and Seattle Seahawks go at it for the fifth time in two seasons.  The Seahawks found out on Friday they won't have their game-changing playmaker Percy Harvin.  This greatly affects their offense in that they will need to rely more on their core players Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch.  This usually wouldn't be a problem for Seattle, but they're playing San Francisco, against whom Wilson performs average at best, and, no matter how well "Beast Mode" has done in the past, has a defense built to abolish the run.  Since 1990, teams from the same division have met in the conference championship four times.  The road team has won three of them.  Even with the Seahawks defense and Legion of Boom playing their best, Kaepernick, Gore, and the rest of the 49ers will emerge victorious, and head to a showdown of epic proportions at MetLife Stadium.

Prediction: Seahawks 16  49ers 24

Saturday, January 11, 2014

NFL Playoffs: Divisional Round

Divisional Round picks:
Marshawn Lynch will turn on his "beast mode"
against the Saints.

(1)Seattle Seahawks vs. (6)New Orleans Saints
Since 2005, when a six-seed plays a one-seed in the playoffs, the six-seed has won six of eight total matchups.  The Seahawks, when playing a team twice in a season, have only won both games five of twenty times.  After this weekend, that number will be six.  In a battle of short statured quarterbacks, Russell Wilson and Drew Brees will have to rely on their entire supporting casts to get a win.  Both teams have a strong pass-rush and an average offensive line.  This will force both teams adjust, which in turn will boil the game down to one factor; the 12th Man.  New Orleans painted a Seahawk logo on their turf and blared crowd noise through the Superdome speakers, but it isn't the same effect.  Even with all the favorable statistics, this is where the Saints quest for a second Super Bowl trophy in four years will come to an end.  Also, I'm feeling a Bobby Wagner pick at some point.

Prediction: Seahawks 34  Saints 20


Tom Brady hasn't had his best season, but hasn't slowed
when it comes to the playoffs.
(2)New England Patriots vs. (4)Indianapolis Colts
Andrew Luck may be the hottest name in the NFL right now.  That game last Saturday in Indy was one of the best playoff comebacks by an individual player I've ever seen.  Luck will look to duplicate that performance at Gillette Stadium tonight.  The Colts blindsided the Patriots earlier this week by signing ex-Patriot receiver Deion Branch, looking to fill a void in the receiving corps.  New England has some holes too.  However, even though they've struggled at various points in the season, I can't see Tom Brady losing this one.  His playoff experience and knack for making heroes out of nobodies on offense will carry the Patriots to the next round.

Prediction: Patriots 31  Colts 17


(2)Carolina Panthers vs. (5)San Francisco 49ers
With 120 individual tackles, 5 sacks, 11 passes defensed,
2 INTs, 4 FFs, 2 fumble recoveries, and 1 defensive TD,
NaVorro Bowman is a Defensive POY candidate.
With Michael Crabtree active, the 49ers are undefeated this season.  Yes, I know that's only six games, but it's not without evidence.  The last time these two teams played each other, it was a nose to the grindstone fight, with only one touchdown scored and both quarterbacks throwing under 170 yards.  Crabtree didn't play, and San Francisco's speedy tight end Vernon Davis and rookie safety Eric Reid both left due to injury before the final whistle blew in favor of Carolina.  In Cam vs. Kaep 2.0, the outcome will be reversed.  While these teams are extremely similar- both have a dual-threat QB, a mediocre receiving corps., and a dominant defense, especially their front sevens- the one with the playoff experience, home crowd, and hottest hand(s) will move on to the NFC Championship.

Prediction: Panthers 17  49ers 20


Peyton Manning broke nearly all major passing records this
season, including passing yards and passing TDs in a season.
(1)Denver Broncos vs. (6)San Diego Chargers
Peyton Manning had arguably the best season a quarterback has ever had in the NFL.  He and the "four horsemen" have created the most potent offense in league history.  Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Wes Welker, and Julius Thomas each have 10 or more touchdown receptions.  Knowshon Moreno has 10 rushing touchdowns.  All these factors will bring the San Diego Chargers' season to an end.  The Broncos only lost three games all season, but the Chargers are riding their own 5-game winning streak into this matchup.  But while many point to San Diego's upset of Denver earlier this season, people forget Denver handled the first contest between these two division rivals.  Peyton will do it again Sunday in a high-scoring affair.

Prediction: Broncos 42  Chargers 31

Saturday, January 4, 2014

NFL Playoffs: Wildcard Picks

Here are my picks for the four wildcard matchups this weekend:
The Chiefs Tamba Hali, who is tied for the team lead in sacks
with 11, plans on playing Saturday despite a swollen knee.

(4)Indianapolis Colts vs. (5)Kansas City Chiefs
When these two teams met in week 16, the Colts stomped the Chiefs 23-7 at Arrowhead.  Going into Indianapolis, the Chiefs will look to prove that game was a fluke.  The Colts are playing as good as is possible without Reggie Wayne.  However, the Chiefs defense will be playing like this is the Super Bowl.  They want to prove they're more than just a team that beats non-post season teams.  Offensively, Kansas City will do what it's been doing nearly all season; lean on Jamaal Charles.  He'll run circles around Indy's defense, and along with Alex Smith, will make sure those four turnovers don't happen again.

Prediction: Colts 17  Chiefs 31



Drew Brees should torch the Eagles porous secondary,
even with the cold playing conditions.
(3)Philadelphia Eagles vs. (6)New Orleans Saints
This is arguably the most intriguing game of the wild card round.  The two quarterbacks attended the same high school, and both have their offenses red hot after huge late season wins.  But while the Eagles have the more rounded offense, the Saints have a more rounded team, allowing just 305.7 total offensive yards a game, fourth best in the league.  New Orleans' new-look defense also has two breakout pass-rushers in Cameron Jordan(12.5 sacks) and Junior Galette(12).  Besides, I can't take the worst passing defense in the league against the 2nd best passing attack.

Prediction: Eagles 27  Saints 31



Chargers rookie Keenan Allen put up 8 catches for 106 yards
against the Bengals in week 13.
(3)Cincinnati Bengals vs. (6)San Diego Chargers
 Perhaps the wildest stat of the playoffs as of late is this; as of 2009, whatever team plays the Eagles in Philadelphia's season opener wins the Super Bowl.  It happened to the '09 Saints, '10 Packers, '11 Giants, and the '12 Ravens.  Now I'm not saying the Chargers are winning it all, but they will get past the wildcard round.  This is another matchup that played out earlier in the season, with the good version of Cincinnati coming out on top.  This time around, Dalton and the Bengals won't be able to stop San Diego and it's four game winning streak.

Prediction: Bengals 23  Chargers 28


Frank Gore and the 49ers are riding a 6-game
winning streak into Lambeau.
(4)Green Bay Packers vs. (5)San Francisco 49ers
At -30°F, this could wind up being the third coldest pro football game ever played.  Other than that, and the fact that Aaron Rodgers is back, there isn't much pushing this game in Green Bay's favor.  The biggest difference in the Packers from this year to last is the new, potent rushing attack, ranked 7th in the league.  The 49ers however have the 4th ranked defense against the run.  For Green Bay to have their best chance of winning this game, they need to turn it into a shootout between Rodgers and Kaepernick, which means containing the run, something I just don't see the Pack being able to do.  The 49ers have proven three times in the past two years that they can out-duel this team.  They'll prove it again on Sunday.

Prediction: Packers 17  49ers 38


Yes I am aware all my picks are the visiting teams.  It wouldn't be the craziest thing to happen this season.

Thursday, December 12, 2013

Rookie In-season Profile: Sio Moore

Sio Moore(55) celebrates his 6 tackle, 1.5 sack performance in week 8 with safety Usama Young.

Going into the 2013 NFL draft, the Oakland Raiders knew they needed help at a range of positions.  One of those positions was outside linebacker.  They needed a versatile athlete who could not only pass-rush but also move into coverage, jam the line, and contain the offense in a 4-3 system.

Enter Sio Moore.
Sio Moore finished his collegiate career with 44 tackles for
loss, 4th most in school history.

Born in Liberia, his family moved to Connecticut early in his life.  He excelled in his college career at the University of Connecticut, enough to earn All-Big East first-team honors his senior year.  He shined throughout all major phases of the draft process, from the East-West Shrine game, to the combine, to his pro day.  Moore's draft stock soared, and he was finally picked up by the Raiders with the 4th pick in the 3rd round(66th overall); a steal according to most draft experts.

At 6'1", 240lbs., Moore is now a starting OLB for the Raiders, a dark horse candidate for defensive rookie of the year, and is tied for 4th of all rookies with 3.5 sacks.  That's impressive considering most of the rookies around him in that stat- Ezekiel Ansah, Barkevious Mingo, Sheldon Richardson- were drafted in the 1st round.  He is a solid tackler, with a good mix of agility and strength, and has an instinctive knack for getting in the backfield and attacking the ball.  In addition to his outstanding physical skills, Moore has a nearly unrivaled work ethic, something coaches yearn for in future franchise linebackers.

In 2013 Sio Moore has helped lead a rebuilt Raiders defense, which has jumped from 31st in sacks a year ago to 16th, the 4th biggest jump of any team in that span, behind the Bills, Chiefs, and Saints.  Those three teams also just happen to be one, two, and three in that stat category.  As the AFC West is quickly becoming a powerhouse division, the Raiders will fight to become worthy of that notation, with the help of young leaders like Sio Moore.

Monday, November 4, 2013

Game of the Week: Green Bay Packers(5-2) vs. Chicago Bears(4-3)

Eddie Lacy gashed the Ravens for 120 yards in week 6.


Aaron Rodgers is 0-2 versus the Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football.

That streak will be broken tonight.

In the fierce rivalry's 187th meeting, the Packers will look to defend their rank at the top of the NFC North standings.  They started the season 1-2 with losses to the 49ers and Bengals, but have gone on a tear since their week four bye, winning the past four games.

Matchup to watch
Rodgers has performed near his best all season, specifically the last two weeks, where he has completed 75% of his passes for 545 yards, five touchdowns and no picks.  Those stats are all the more impressive since he achieved most of them without three of his top four targets in Randall Cobb, James Jones, and Jermichael Finley.  While Cobb and Finley will likely be out for at least 6 weeks, Jones has the possibility of playing in tonight's game.  Jones would join top-ten NFL receiver Jordy Nelson and recent breakout Jarrett Boykin as they go up against a pass defense ranked a lowly 26th, despite forcing the 7th most turnovers in the league.  Bears ball-hawking cornerbacks Charles Tillman and Tim Jennings each have three interceptions and two forced fumbles on the season.  The elite talent through the air on both sides of the ball will make for exciting plays outside the hash marks.

Reviving the run game
Rodgers recently stated he "didn't really expect" the sudden success the Packers' run game has had so far in 2013.  Ranked 7th in the league in that category, Green Bay has had the top rusher in their previous six games, the last four being the rookie Eddie Lacy from Alabama.  Other than being absolutely ferocious in between the tackles, Lacy brings a surprisingly versatile array of skills to a backfield that has three halfbacks with at least 100 yards rushing and one rushing touchdown this season.  Chicago has had a dangerously multi-faceted back for years in Matt Forte, who already has 795 yards from scrimmage this year.  However, where Green Bay has succeeded in stopping the run, allowing a stiff 83.6 ypg, the Bears have struggled, giving up 117.3 ypg.  Both squads will be looking to improve those tonight.

Alshon Jeffery is slated to make a major impact against the
Packers tonight.

Chicago has injuries too
While the Packers have had more than their share of injuries to key players, the Bears will be without two of their most important as well.  Quarterback Jay Cutler and veteran linebacker Lance Briggs will not play.  Josh McCown is better than the typical backup quarterback; he could probably start for a few teams struggling at that position.  Last Sunday against the Redskins, he threw 14 completions on 20 attempts for 204 yards, 1 touchdown and no interceptions after coming in for an injured Cutler.  He also ran four times for 33 yards.  The Bears strong receiving corps., made up of Brandon "The Beast" Marshall(6'4"), fellow wideout Alshon Jeffery(6'3"), and tight end Martellus "Black Unicorn" Bennett(6'6"), will aid McCown against a pedestrian defense that will also be without their top linebacker in Clay Matthews.  We will see which sides of both these teams can thrive in times of instability.

The Lions, Cowboys, and each other are the only remaining teams on the both the Packers and Bears schedule that have a winning record.  As the NFL's oldest rivalry hits the field tonight, the race for the NFC North reaches its peak of the season.

Prediction: Packers 31  Bears 28