Rookie In-season Profile: Stevan Ridley

Ridley me this.
Stevan Ridley has the second-best yards-per-carry average, a stellar 4.8, of all rookie running backs.  This is a better average than superstar backs Frank Gore, Maurice Jones-Drew, Steven Jackson, Ray Rice, and even Adrian Peterson.  Granted, they have all had many, many more carries than Ridley has, but for 48 carries this still makes a statement.

Ridley scoring a touchdown on a 33 yard run against the Raiders.

Coming out of LSU, Stevan Ridley wasn't expected to make any sort of splash in the NFL.  His performance at the Combine was definitely not desirable, and he was only an average halfback in college.  Yet so far in the NFL, he has the eighth most rushing yards of all rookie running backs with 231, and he plays for the New England Patriots.  He has done fairly well in many of the nine games he has run the ball, with his best performance coming in week 4 against the Oakland Raiders, where he blazed for 97 yards on 10 carries. His ball-carrier vision, something which I believe is possibly the most important non-stat feature of a running back, is excellent.  His biggest issue is simply speed, which he makes up for in strength.  His size lets him push piles as he runs, and he is always churning his legs and keeping his feet moving, a technique all running back legends, notably Walter Payton, LaDainian Tomlinson, and now Adrian Peterson, used.  Along with speed however, he struggles with the catch, especially in getting YAC.  So on the many pass plays the Patriots run, he has developd into a very durable blocker.  Stevan Ridley I believe has launched his opportunity of playing in the NFL off to a very intriguing start.  Now if he can just get more carries...


UPDATE(06/26/12):  NFL.com recently published an article stating that Stevan Ridley will be a breakout star this upcoming 2012 season for the Patriots: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d82a1711b/article/stevan-ridley-ready-for-breakout-with-patriots-

Reviewed Game of Week 13: Chicago Bears vs. Kansas City Chiefs

As a weekly post, I will be covering and predicting one chosen game each week.

Week 13: Bears vs. Chiefs

Both the Bears and the Chiefs have lost their franchise QB for the season.  While you could argue back and forth about which one was more vital to their team, they both must look forward if either wants to make the playoffs.

The Bears currently own a wildcard spot, but if they aren't careful, they could lose three of their last five games and end up a game or two short.

The Chiefs need to realize that they have potential, but they haven't yet, and with a 3-game tail behind the tough Oakland Raiders and 2 behind the ever-rising Denver Tebows, the Chiefs need a win now.  

                                                                                                              Julius Peppers is tied for 11th in sacks this season, getting to the quarterback 8 times.

The most intriguing story-line of this game is the possibility of Kyle Orton playing his old team.  Let's face it, Tyler Palko is not doing anything but hurting this offense.  They need someone who has experience leading a full NFL team.  As a head coach, Todd Haley cannot do that.  So they must rely in their quarterback.  Since the running game disappeared with Jamaal Charles in Week 2, the passing game must put forth the effort to be the primary lead on offense.  Last year, Dwayne Bowe showed his true potential, breaking the franchise record for the most receiving TDs in a single season, with 15.  While this year he only has four, he still is the biggest factor in whether or not Kansas City can pull this game off.  Kyle Orton did well last season with Brandon Lloyd running wild, but Bowe doesn't have the downhill speed that had that duo making it look easy.  Orton and Bowe will have to rely a mix of route-running and strength, two of Bowe's strong suits, to succeed.  Steve Breaston, Leonard Pope, Dexter McCluster, and Jonathan Baldwin help as a solid supporting cast, a definite edge that the Bears don't have.  But now with the team being forced to rely in a new quarterback, the positives and negatives will collide, and each can only do so much.

                              Dwayne Bowe will have to bring it all, from aggressiveness to acrobatics, if he wants to lead his team to victory this Sunday.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Chiefs could thrive.  I believe their secondary is far more dangerous than any team going up against them feels, and that could be a key in this matchup.  Caleb Hanie is not a starting quarterback.  While he is better than Palko, he is not better than Orton, and with a poor receiving corps. outside of Johnny Knox, Mike Martz's offense will have to- rather, will get to- rely on their most dangerous weapon; Matt Forte.  With the second most scrimmage yards per game, Forte is an unpredictable force of nature.  He alone could beat the Chiefs.  If Hanie likes to throw screens all day(what back-up quarterback doesn't), the Bears could have a field day.

Defensively, this game is scattered.  You never know if it'll be the Bears of 2006 that show up, or something far less intense.  When the Bears defense struggles, it is, at the worst, a slightly below average team.  Urlacher and Briggs still do what they do, and Charles Tillman is having a solid year, but the intensity seems missing.  Julius Peppers is always dangerous, whether he's having a good day or a bad day, and he can play either edge of the line.  With the Chiefs having an average at best offensive line, they must believe the Bears defense will get aggressive and try to take advantage of that.  The Chiefs defense has just about the same story, but going the opposite direction.  While the Bears seem to have toned it down a notch, the Chiefs seem to have found some energy.  Many players are breaking out this year, with Kendrick Lewis I believe being the most visible.  He is strong until the whistle blows, and even a bit after.  His adrenaline alone seems to worry quarterbacks at times.  As I said before, that secondary could now be considered elite, with Lewis as well as with the two Brandons, Carr and Flowers.  Derrick Johnson and Tamba Hali are also having stellar seasons.  The big question is, can all this potential arrive at Soldier Field on Sunday and stop the rampage that is Matt Forte?  The Bears other main weapon, Devin Hester, could also be a back-breaker in this game.  It will all depend on who will show up.

Final Statement:  Without a doubt, Dwayne Bowe is Kansas City's only surefire hope.  What they'll be able to do with that hope, that's a whole other story.


Prediction: Bears 17, Chiefs 16

_

Optimus Prime: The Next Calvin Johnson

Optimus Prime is the nickname I'm giving Tampa Bay's WR Mike Williams.

Yes, that Mike Williams. The one in his sophomore slump.

And yes, ironically, Calvin Johnsons best complete season to date is his 2nd season in the NFL.  But Mike Williams, even in his rookie season, showed signs of a true #1 big play receiver.

Now I'm not saying Williams is going to have the kind of historic year Megatron is having this season, but I can tell you he will become a successful, reliable wide receiver.  He shows great awareness- even when he was a rookie- that is far beyond his age and ego, and his agility is terrific for a receiver his size.  The biggest difference in these 2 machines is probably just that.  Calvin Johnson is a monstrous 6'5", 236lb. ball magnet, while Williams is a decent number of inches shorter at 6'2", and weighs an athletic 212lbs.  Despite this, and despite Megatron having an otherworldy 45" vertical, Mike Williams seems to possess the same flexibility and strength when in the air to do what is necessary to bring a ball in.  Both receivers will sacrifice their body to make a play as well, something I believe is a must in a truly #1 WR.

Finally, Mike Williams has something few other receivers in the league truly possess; incredible body control.  I can recall many plays where he will locate a deep ball, estimate where it'll be when it gets to him, jump up and get it no matter how many defenders are around him, and then hold onto the ball like his life depended on it- all seemingly in slow motion.  Take Week 1 as a prime example(pun intended), when the Bucs where in a rut against a surprising Detroit Lions team.  Down by 2 touchdowns with 1:41 to go, Josh Freeman throws a heated shot to the back of the endzone.  Mike Williams goes up, brings the ball to his chest, and looks down to make sure his feet are in-bounds.  He lets his body fall, but holds onto the ball for a sensational play.  And yes, while its true that they lost that game, going forward, I feel strongly that this is the kind of machine-like play that we will see from Optimus Prime.

Rookie In-season Profile: Brandon Saine

A few times throughout the NFL season, I will publish an articles called Rookie In-season Profiles.  In these articles I will cover a selected first-year player's journey in the NFL so far, and where I think it will take them.  These rookies will mostly be lesser known, with a few exceptions here and there.


Go in-Saine.  Go in-Saine.  Throw a football.  Let him run.

At 5'11" and 220 lbs., Brandon Saine might seem like a pretty typical 3rd string power back.  But there is more to this ex-Buckeye than meets the eye.  At the 2011 Rookie Combine he ran a 4.43 40, beating out many other running backs including speed backs Dion Lewis and Kendall Hunter, both of whom have found decent success here and there in the NFL.  Saine also did fairly well in the preseason, even though a few of his stats for those 4 games are skewed because a number of his carries were for 3rd and short plays.  With his size-to-speed combo, he has the ability to not only burst through holes, but through tackles as well.  He doesn't go down on is first hit, and falls forward almost always.  His body has a very low center of gravity, similar to superstar halfbacks Frank Gore and Maurice Jones-Drew.  In the passing game, Saine is a top-notch blocker, and an even better receiver out of the backfield.  In his 4 preseason games, he was targeted 7 times, and had 6 receptions for 36 yards.  His only real negative is his durability, which is far outweighed by his skill.  Brandon Saine has an excellent mix of the ground and pound style and the one-cut style of running, which I believe will help him make his mark in the NFL.  And when the Packers give him a chance, he'll take it and run with it.


Saine at Packers training camp.

2011 NFL Season Predictions

Here are my predictions I made at the beginning of the 2011 NFL season.


-NFC NORTH                        -NFC SOUTH
 Packers    (11-5)                  Falcons        (14-2)
 Bears       (9-7)                    Saints          (11-5)
 Lions        (7-9)                   Buccaneers   (9-7)
 Vikings     (4-12)                  Panthers      (4-12)

-NFC EAST                            -NFC WEST
 Eagles      (13-3)                   Rams         (10-6)
 Giants       (10-6)                   49ers         (7-9)
 Cowboys   (9-7)                     Seahawks  (5-11)
 Redskins   (5-11)                   Cardinals    (3-13)

-AFC NORTH                         -AFC SOUTH
 Steelers    (13-3)                  Texans       (9-7)
 Ravens     (12-4)                   Colts          (8-8)
 Browns      (7-9)                    Jaguars      (7-9)
 Bengals     (2-14)                  Titans       (4-12)

-AFC EAST                            -AFC WEST
 Patriots     (11-5)                  Chargers    (12-4)
 Jets          (8-8)                    Chiefs        (10-6)
 Dolphins   (7-9)                    Raiders      (6-10)
 Bills          (5-11)                  Broncos      (4-12)

My 2011 NFL Playoffs predictions, with predicted players of the year, and playoff scores.


-NFL MVP: Matt Ryan
-NFL Offensive POY: Matt Ryan
-NFL Defensive POY: DeMarcus Ware
-NFL Offensive ROY: Cam Newton
-NFL Defensive ROY: J.J. Watt

DIVISION LEADERS:
AFC NFC
-Steelersxyz* -Falconsxyz*
-Chargersxyz -Eaglesxyz
-Patriotsxy -Packersxy
-Texansxy -Ramsxy

WILD CARD TEAMS:
AFC NFC
-Ravensx -Saintsx
-Chiefsx -Giantsx

(x:wild card, xy:divison, xyz:1st-rnd bye, xyz*:home-field advantage)
(team thats under the other team is the home team for wild card and division games only)
                                                                                   SUPER
 Wild Card                Division             Conference        BOWL
    24-35                  21-27(OT)
   Giants                    Packers                17-24               16-26
  Packers                    Eagles                Eagles

   31-20        NFC      27-45                    vs.               Falcons
  Saints                       Saints               Falcons
  Rams                       Falcons

                                                                     2011 NFL Champion: Ravens
    21-27                 38-37
  Chiefs                 Patriots               21-30
  Patriots               Chargers             Patriots

     34-13     AFC      30-17                vs.                     Ravens
  Ravens                  Ravens              Ravens
  Texans                 Steelers

Rogers That!

Coming into the 2011 NFL off-season, the 49ers knew they needed to do something about their secondary.  Their best secondary player had a total of 3 INTs in 2010, with many teams having two or even three defensive backs with more each.  And, Nate Clements is slow, aging, and not agile enough to go up against the athletic, powerful receivers of today.  When the 49ers were searching for a new cornerback to lead their secondary along with their only other solid backfield playmaker, free safety Dashon Goldson, they were clearly looking for someone agile and quick.  They've found that and more in Carlos Rogers.

While in Washington for the 2010 season, I could see his incredible physical talent combo of speed AND strength.  He could keep up with the likes of fierce NFC East wide receivers like the Giants Hakeem Nicks, the Eagles Jeremy Maclin, and even the Cowboys' cowboy Miles Austin.  And yes, while Rogers only had 2 interceptions in the 2010 season, his tight enforcement of his island vs. receivers kept quarterbacks thoughts of throwing near him at bay.  With an almost Revis-like body type, Rogers played with the tenacity and confidence of a young superstar.

Carlos Rogers snags an interception away 

from WR Victor Cruz.  He had two on the day.

Now, with 5 interceptions on the year already, he IS a superstar, and has been a major factor and veteran leader in the 49ers terrifying young defense that it has become today- the 49ers secondary has allowed the 2nd fewest passing yards to quarterbacks with the acquisition of Rogers, as well as ex-Bill Donte Whitner.  This is now a defensive backfield to dread going up against each week.


UPDATE(06/26/12): Carlos Rogers was recently ranked #69 on NFL.com's Top 100 Players of 2012.

Introduction

This blog will cover many topics, but the primary subject will be my NFL scouting observations.  I started this blog because over the past 4 or 5 years, I have predicted many sports occurrences that were not visible to most, such as underdogs, playoff predictions, and player stats.  Although a number of these have been in other sports, the vast majority is in my favorite; American football and the NFL.

Here are some of my previous predictions, first not football related:

-Butler making it to the Final Four in the NCAA Basketball 2010 March Madness Tournament(In my best bracket prediction ever, I correctly had three of the Final Four correct, in Butler, West Virginia, and Duke.  My fourth team in the Final Four, Tennessee, was beaten by Michigan State in the previous round.)

-Kentucky getting to the Final Four in the NCAA Basketball 2011 March Madness Tournament

-Los Angeles Lakers winning the 2010 NBA Championship

-Milwaukee Brewers beating the Arizona Diamondbacks in the 2011 MLB NLDS

-Jimmy Johnson winning at least 3 NASCAR Sprint Cups(this I predicted long before he won his first)

Now football related, from the 2010 season:

-Ryan Torain replaces Clinton Portis as Washington Redskins feature back and Portis is released

-Desmond Bishop becomes a top LB on the Green Bay Packers

-Jamaal Charles becomes one of the top RBs of the season

-Aqib Talib becomes one of the top DBs of the season

-Hakeem Nicks becomes one of the top WRs of the season

-Ndamukong Suh gets Defensive Rookie of the Year

-2 correct team records: Baltimore Ravens(12-4), Oakland Raiders(8-8)

-5 1-game-away team records

-and not from the 2010 season: LaDainian Tomlinsons record setting 2006 season

A majority of this site will be articles stating why I believe what I predict.  Also, at the beginning of each season, I will be posting my team records predictions and playoff predictions.  I am creating this blog partly for my enjoyment and your entertainment, but also to act as a resume in a way.  Almost all my life I have dreamed of working for the National Football League, as a scout, a coach, or front office personnel.  I am hoping this will get me one step closer to achieving this dream.